I saw an Arthur Hayes podcast pop up on my YouTube feed and immediately clicked on it. I’m always interested in hearing what he has to say.

He’s the former BitMEX CEO and macro trader. Smart dude.

Here’s a breakdown of his “Bull Market Portfolio,” why he thinks Bitcoin is still king, and why in a world of inflation, ETH can’t ever be true “money.”

Election? “Meh.” Crypto Doesn’t Care.

• Crypto doesn’t care who wins elections. Why? It runs on tech, not on political policies.
• For crypto, it’s money printer go brrr > government rules. Real value driver is fiat being cheapened, not politicians meddling.

Money Printer Always on. More Cash, Less Value.

• The U.S. (and every country drowning in debt) needs that money printer. Debt demands it, and printing is how governments play it. Hayes sees fiat devaluation as inevitable.
• Recession? Impossible with government spending juicing up 30% of the U.S. GDP. Government dollars are like a cheat code keeping things afloat.

China’s Property Bubble = “Money Cannon” Reloading Soon.

• China’s property bubble is HUGE—a giant credit beast from decades of urban migration, property hype, and cheap loans.
• Hayes says China will print like crazy to stay afloat. He calls it “monetary chemotherapy”—the cure that also weakens cash value for everyday people. Expect massive liquidity in response, maybe more than the U.S. COVID stimulus. This means demand for btc and gold goes up.

Hayes’ Crypto Portfolio: Bitcoin, ETH, and “Yield Magic”

• Crypto bucket = 90-95% invested (but still keep some cash to capitalize on opportunities). Bitcoin and ETH are Hayes’ mainstays, with some yield projects thrown in for good measure.
• ETH isn’t “money” in his book. To Hayes, it’s useful but not a pure store of value. ETH earns its place as a capital asset, not as “digital gold.” Only Bitcoin is the true reserve asset in crypto.

China Loves USDT, the “OG Stablecoin”

• USDT is king in China, where crypto is restricted but not banned. Locals are more comfy with USDT than USDC, trusting its roots in Asia and the familiar faces behind it.

War = Inflation Pump, “Hold Bitcoin and Gold.”

• Hayes says, “War wastes energy, which drives up value for stored energy assets,” like Bitcoin and gold. His wartime rule: go low on leverage and sleep sound, knowing Bitcoin’s value tracks long-term energy prices.
• War = inflationary. Get out of fiat, or get burned.

Memecoins: “If I Hear About It, I Ape”

• For memecoins, Hayes waits until market cap is big enough to get people hyped. He’s not chasing low caps; he’s buying what already has social momentum—whatever can get a headline or become a Twitter meme is what he’s looking for.

Best Quotes to Sum It Up:

• “ETH is gas; Bitcoin is money.” – why Haye’s thinks ETH won’t ever be true “money.”
• “No recession as long as government can print.” – why the economy doesn’t collapse, even if it should.
• “War = uninvestable, but Bitcoin keeps up with energy.” – rule for holding Bitcoin: as long as it’s chaos and inflationary, Bitcoin holds its value over fiat.